Bozorlar bo’yicha tavakkalchiliklarni segmentlash

1) Xavflarning geo-segmentatsiyasi nima uchun zarur?

Konversiya va yoʻqotishlarni oldindan boshqarish (declines, CB, WHT).
Yo’naltirish: mamlakat bo’yicha PSP/usul va 3DS strategiyasini tanlash.
Limitlar va KYC: depozit/olib qo’yishning dinamik chegaralari.
Finplan: FX bahosi, T + N settlementlari, zaxira.
Komplayens: kulrang zonalar, sanksiyalar, vertikal yuqori xavflarni nazorat qilish.

2) Tavakkalchiliklar taksonomiyasi (qatlamlar)

1. Regulyator: iGaming, lokal litsenziyalar, domen/ilovalarni blokirovka qilish.
2. Sanksiya/geosiyosiy: to’lovlarni cheklash, SDN/OFAC/EU/UK ro’yxatlari.
3. To’lov: avtorizatsiya rate’lari, 3DS/Issuer-behavior, chargeback ratio, refund latency.
4. Antifrod/AML: multiakkaunting, bonus-abyuz, SoF nomuvofiqliklar, RER/sanksiyalar.
5. To’lovlar (payout): koridorlar, cut-off, qaytarmalar, provayderlar limitlari.
6. FX/G’aznachilik: o’zgaruvchanlik, likvidlik, erkin valyuta relslari.
7. Soliq: GGR duty/VAT/GST/WHT ekspozitsiya va hisobot tavakkalchiliklari.
8. Infratuzilma: internet-filtrlar/senzura, blokirovka PSP, latency, SIM-farming.
9. PSP barqarorligi: moliyaviy salomatlik, rolling reserve%, SLA, hodisalar chastotasi.

3) Geo-klasterlashtirish (namunaviy profillar)

Low-risk/Regulated: domestic kartalarning yuqori ulushi, bashorat qilinadigan GGR rejimi, barqaror banklar.
Medium-risk/Transitional: aralash usullar savati, o’zgaruvchan FX, epizodik blokirovkalar.
High-risk/Restricted: taqiqlar/kulrang zonalar, yuqori frod, zaif KYC doc bazasi.
Sanction-sensitive: ikkilamchi sanksiyalar xavfi, beqaror to’lov yo’laklari.
Cash-dominant: past karta-penetratsiya, lokal e-hamyonlar/agentlar, yuqori xavf chargeback-surrogates (analoglar munozaralari).

4. 1. Tavakkalchilik indeksi’R _ geo’(0-100)

R_geo = 0. 25RegScore + 0. 15Sanctions + 0. 20PayScore + 0. 15FraudAML
+ 0. 10Payout + 0. 10FX + 0. 05Tax

RegScore: ruxsat maqomi (0 = toza, 100 = taqiqlangan).
Sanctions: sanksiyalar/eskalatsiyalar indeksi.
PayScore: avtorizatsiya, 3DS-oʻtish, CB ratio, fee-yuk.
FraudAML: velocity, device-klasterlash, PER/sank-xitlar, SoF rad etish.
Payout: return rate, avg-ETA, provayderni rad etish.
FX: oʻzgaruvchanlik/PSP tarqalishi.
Soliq: murakkablik/xavf WHT/VAT.

4. 2. Sinflar

A (0-25): standart limitlar, yumshoq 3DS, standart tariflar.
B (26-50): kuchaytirilgan KYC L2, limitlar ↓, qattiq 3DS, afzalroq PSP.
C (51-75): KYC L3 + SoF, cap depozitlari, kechiktirilgan to’lovlar, oq usullar.
D (76-100): trafik bloki/faqat free-to-play/muzlatilgan to’lovlar.

5) Tavakkalchilik klassi bo’yicha siyosatlar

6) Ma’lumotlar va belgilar (feature set)

Payments: AR/DR usullari bo’yicha, soft-decline ulushi, 3DS step-up, CB/Liability shift.
Fraud/AML: device-graph, geovelocity, proxy/VPN, BIN-geo mismatch, SoF/Docs pass-rate.
Payout: rad etish/qaytarish, SLA provayderlari, share same-method.
FX: spread_bps vs reference, open-position, slippage.
Tax/Legal: GGR rejimi, VAT/GST qo’llanilishi, sheriklar bo’yicha WHT.
Sanctions/Infra: DNS/ISP bloklari, toʻlov taqiqlari, CDN bloklari.
PSP health: hodisalar/oy, reserve%, funding delays.

7) Ma’lumotlar sxemasi (eng kam)

ref. country_risk_factors (
iso2 PK, reg_status, sanctions_idx, ggr_mode, vat_mode, wht_mode,
psp_availability_score, payout_corridors, fx_vol_idx, notes, effective_from, effective_to
)

risk. geo_metrics_daily (
d, iso2,
auth_rate, cb_ratio, refund_rate, three_ds_pass, decline_soft_share,
payout_return_rate, payout_eta_hours,
aml_alerts, pep_hits, sof_fail_rate,
fx_spread_bps, fx_volatility_bps,
psp_incidents
)

risk. geo_score_daily (
d, iso2, reg_score, sanctions, pay_score, fraud_aml, payout, fx, tax, r_geo, class
)

policy. geo_controls (
iso2, class, max_deposit, max_withdrawal, kyc_level, sof_required,
bonus_policy, methods_whitelist, routing_psp, withdrawal_t_plus
)

8) Jarayon (ETL/orkestr)

1. To’lov va frod-voqealar ingesti → v’geo _ metrics _ daily’agregatsiyasi.
2. Join s’country _ risk _ factors’→ hisob-kitob’r _ geo’va sinf berish.
3. Render’policy. geo_controls' → push v gatveye/Antifraud/KYC/To’lov Router.
4. Alertlar monitoringi va hodisalar bo’yicha qayta hisoblash (sanksiyalar, tartibga soluvchi yangilanishlar, PSP-hodisalar).

9) SQL namunalari

9. 1. Geoskoring hisob-kitobi

sql
INSERT INTO risk. geo_score_daily (d, iso2, reg_score, sanctions, pay_score, fraud_aml, payout, fx, tax, r_geo, class)
SELECT m. d, m. iso2,
r. reg_status    AS reg_score,
r. sanctions_idx  AS sanctions,
50(1 - m. auth_rate) + 50m. cb_ratio         AS pay_score,
40m. aml_alerts + 60m. sof_fail_rate         AS fraud_aml,
40m. payout_return_rate + 60(m. payout_eta_hours/72) AS payout,
0. 8m. fx_spread_bps + 0. 2m. fx_volatility_bps    AS fx,
CASE WHEN r. vat_mode='COMPLEX' OR r. wht_mode='HIGH' THEN 60 ELSE 20 END AS tax,
NULL, NULL
FROM risk. geo_metrics_daily m
JOIN ref. country_risk_factors r USING (iso2, / optionally date window /);

9. 2. Chegaralar bo’yicha tasniflash

sql
UPDATE risk. geo_score_daily
SET r_geo = 0. 25reg_score + 0. 15sanctions + 0. 20pay_score + 0. 15fraud_aml
+ 0. 10payout + 0. 10fx + 0. 05tax,
class = CASE
WHEN r_geo <= 25 THEN 'A'
WHEN r_geo <= 50 THEN 'B'
WHEN r_geo <= 75 THEN 'C'
ELSE 'D'
END
WHERE d BETWEEN:from AND:to;

9. 3. Siyosatni yaratish

sql
INSERT INTO policy. geo_controls (iso2, class, max_deposit, max_withdrawal, kyc_level, sof_required, bonus_policy, methods_whitelist, routing_psp, withdrawal_t_plus)
SELECT s. iso2, s. class,
CASE s. class WHEN 'A' THEN 1. 00 WHEN 'B' THEN 0. 75 WHEN 'C' THEN 0. 40 ELSE 0 END:base_deposit AS max_deposit,
CASE s. class WHEN 'A' THEN 1. 00 WHEN 'B' THEN 0. 70 WHEN 'C' THEN 0. 30 ELSE 0 END:base_withdrawal,
CASE s. class WHEN 'A' THEN 'L1' WHEN 'B' THEN 'L2' WHEN 'C' THEN 'L3' ELSE 'BLOCK' END,
(s. class IN ('C')) AS sof_required,
CASE s. class WHEN 'A' THEN 'FULL' WHEN 'B' THEN 'LIMITED' WHEN 'C' THEN 'OFF' ELSE 'OFF' END,
CASE s. class WHEN 'A' THEN '{all}' WHEN 'B' THEN '{white_list}' WHEN 'C' THEN '{low_risk}' ELSE '{none}' END,
CASE s. class WHEN 'A' THEN 'psp_primary' WHEN 'B' THEN 'psp_primary,psp_backup' WHEN 'C' THEN 'psp_lowrisk' ELSE '' END,
CASE s. class WHEN 'A' THEN 'T+0' WHEN 'B' THEN 'T+1' WHEN 'C' THEN 'T+3' ELSE '' END;

10) Dashbordlar va KPI

Geo Risk Heatmap:’r _ geo’, sinf, trendlar 7/30/90.
Payments by Class: AR/DR, CB, take-rate, 3DS pass.
Payout Health: qaytarmalar, ETA, sank-bloklar, corridors uptime.
Oʻyinchilar uchun AML/Fraud: alerts/, SoF pass-rate, device-klasterlar.
FX Exposure: spread, open-position, realized/unrealized.
Regulatory Timeline: voqealar/sanksiyalar/blokirovka vs metrika.

11) Alerta va ostonalar

Class jump (B → C yoki C → D): siyosatni va reroute tezda kuchaytirish.
CB spike: oʻsish> X bps w/w sinfda/mamlakatda.
Payout corridor down: provayder> Y% yoki SLA breach.
Sanctions update: yangi roʻyxat/yurisdiksiya - avtofriz.
FX slippage: mamlakat boʻyicha bps usullari chegarasidan oshib ketadi.
SoF/KYC failure: GEO segmentidagi nosozliklar seriyasi> chegara.

12) To’lov arxitekturasida qo’llash

Smart-routing: xarita (GEO × BIN × usul × sinf) → PSP/3DS/modullovchi qoidalarni tanlash.
Limitlar/bonuslar: dinamik chegaralar va C/D. bonuslarni uzib qo’yish.
Payout-policy: same-method, kechiktirilgan toʻlovlar va qoʻshimcha tekshiruvlar.
Pricing: high-risk segmentlarida MDR/markup ustamalari, IC++ va shaffof FX talablari.
G’aznachilik: zarur valyuta/koridorda pre-funding, hedge.

13) Best practices (qisqacha)

1. Metrika (oʻtmish) va siyosatni (kelajak) ajrating: skoring → harakat.
2. Skoring formulalari va vaznlarini versiya qiling (’r _ geo _ v1/v2’).
3. GEO darajasida PSP/usullar boʻyicha AB-marshrutlash testlarini joriy qiling.
4. «Oq roʻyxat» usullari va C/D uchun majburiy 3DS.
5. Sanksiyalar/regulyator va automatic kill-switch bo’yicha evidence saqlang.
6. Post-incident review va skoring vaznida fikr almashing.
7. Cut-off/settlement va hisobot davrlarida DST/taymzonlarni hisobga oling.

14) Joriy etish chek-varaqasi

• Amal qilish davrlari bilan’country _ risk _ factors’ma’lumotnomasi.
• Paypline’geo _ metrics _ daily’(payments, AML, payouts, FX, PSP-hodisalar).
• ’r _ geo’+ versiyasi va A/B nazorati kalkulyatori.
• Generation’policy. Gatveyga/frod/KSga geo_controls' va yetkazib berish.
• Dashbordlar heatmap + sinf poygalari va asosiy metriklar uchun alertlar.
• Mamlakatlar bo’yicha shoshilinch «freeze/reroute» tartib-taomillari.
• Hujjatlar: sinflar va eskalatsiya bo’yicha harakatlar matritsasi.

Xulosa

Bozorlar bo’yicha xavflarni segmentatsiya qilish doimiy sikldir: metriklarni yig’ish → skoring hisoblash → siyosatni chiqarish → monitoring qilish va tuzatish. Ma’lumotlarning aniq modeli, versiyalashtirilgan geo-skoring va siyosatni to’lov konturiga avtomatik ravishda yetkazib berish boshqariladigan konversiyani beradi, yo’qotishlarni kamaytiradi va komplayens va regulyatorlar talablariga muvofiqligini ta’minlaydi.