GH GambleHub

Compliance Risk Matrix

1) Purpose and coverage

The goal is to standardize the assessment and management of compliance risks in iGaming, reduce the likelihood of fines/license revocations, and ensure sustainable operations.
Coverage: AML/CFT, KYC/KYB, sanctions/PEP, payments and bonus-abuzz, Responsible Gaming (RG), data protection/PII, advertising/marketing, partners/affiliates/providers, regulatory reporting.

2) Scales and base 5 × 5-matrix

Probability (L, 1-5):
  • 1 - extremely rare (≤1/god)· 2 - rarely (quarter)· 3 - periodically (month)· 4 - often (week)· 5 - very often (days)
Impact (I, 1-5):
  • Finance: 1: <€5k· 2: €5-25k· 3: €25-100k· 4: €100-500k· 5:> €500k
  • Regulatory: 1: no action· 2: request· 3: prescription· 4: high risk of fine· 5: high risk of suspension/recall
  • Operations/reputation: 1: minimal·...· 5: mass negative/outflow

Final score: R = L × I (1-25)

Zones and thresholds:
  • 1-5 Green - acceptable, monitoring.
  • 6-10 Yellow - downgrade plan and owner.
  • 11-15 Orange - accelerated CAPAs, control every week.
  • 16-25 Red - immediate escalation, incident-bridge, notifications if necessary.

SLA escalations (example): Yellow - 24 h· Orange - 4 h· Red - 15 min.

3) Compliance risk categories (scenarios)

1. AML/CFT: smurfing, mixing funds, "mules," structuring, laundering through bonuses/cache-outs.
2. Sanctions/REP: circumvention of jurisdictional restrictions, false matches, expired lists.
3. KYC/KYB: synthetics, forgery, proxy users, fictitious partners.
4. Payment fraud/bonus abuse: chargebacks, multiaccounting, device farms, CPA fraud of affiliates.
5. RG (responsible play): limit violations, undeveloped triggers of harmful game activity.
6. Data protection/PII: leaks, illegal processing, violation of the rights of subjects, cross-border transfers.
7. Advertising/marketing: targeting prohibited audiences, unfair promos, non-compliance with local rules.
8. Vendors/outsource: failures of KYC providers, hosting partners, PSP; a chain of sub-processors.
9. Regulatory reporting: delays, incomplete reports, data inconsistencies.

4) Compliance Risk Matrix - Presentation Template

CategoryScenarioLIRZoneKRI/KPIThresholdOwnerActionsSLA
Sanctions/PEPHit-rate and FPR growth after list updates3412Orange. Hit-rate %, FPR %> 3% hit-rate or FPR> 12%Head of ComplianceSecondary provider, manual selection of high-value, setting up rules4 h
KYCFailure jump by liveness4312Orange. KYC fail %, TATfail%> 15% dayKYC LeadThreshold calibration, fallback provider, manual cases4 h
AMLAbnormal conclusions (one map/many acc.)3515Orange. SAR/STR rate, Velocity> X pins/card/dayAML LeadFreeze, EDD, STR, Limits1 h
PaymentsChargeback-rate by region4416Red. CBR %, NFD %>1. 2%Payments/FRMTightening 3DS/AVS, hold, offboarding schemes15 min
RGExceeding self-test limits3412Orange.% of violations, TTR> + 50% to baseRG OfficerPlayer Contact, Time Limits/Block, Report4 h
DataPII incident (confirmed)2510Yellow/Orange. #PII records, MTTR> 1000 recordsDPOContainment, Notification, CAPA24 h/4 h
AdvertizingRegulator complaint over promo248Yellow. Complaints/100k impressions> bases × 2Marketing/LegalCreative withdrawal, adjustments, report24 h

If data categories requiring 72-hour notification are affected - immediate escalation (red).

5) Metrics (KRI/KPI) and thresholds

AML/Sanctions/PEP:
  • Hit-rate sanctions/POP for 1k registrations; thresholds:> 1. 5% (yellow),> 3% (orange/red by context)
  • Sanctions FPR/PEP; thresholds:> 8% (yellow),> 12% (orange)
  • SAR/STR per 10k active; Time-to-Review (TTR) alert
KYC/KYB:
  • KYC fail %, Liveness dropout %, avg TAT; thresholds: fail%> 12% (yellow),> 15% (orange)
  • KYB: percentage of partners without up-to-date beneficiaries/scans; thresholds:> 3% (yellow),> 5% (orange)
Payments/fraud:
  • Chargeback Rate (CBR); thresholds:> 0. 8% (yellow),> 1. 2% (red)
  • Net Fraud Loss % от GGR; threshold:> 0. 9% (orange)
RG:
  • Share of self-disconnections; complaints/1,000 players; TTR by RG triggers
Data/PII:
  • Number of critical vulnerabilities in backlog; MTTD/MTTR incident; querying data subjects in SLA
Advertising/Marketing:
  • Complaints/100k impressions; share of rejected creatives by moderation; geo/age disorders
Vendors/Reporting:
  • SLAs of compliance providers; delays in regulatory reports; DWH report-data discrepancies

6) Map of controls and their effectiveness

Preventive: sanction/POP screening (onboarding + before payments), 2FA/WebAuthn, limits, device-fingerprinting, geo-restrictions, age/geo advertising policy, DPIA for new features.
Detective: real-time anti-fraud rules, duplicate sanctions provider, SIEM/SOAR correlations, RG triggers, audit of PII access logs.
Corrective: EDD/EDD +, hold/limits, lead freezing, temporary disabling of promos, notifications to regulators/banks, CAPA.

Efficacy evaluation:
  • Coverage% (scenario coverage), FPR/FNR, Precision/Recall for rules/models, TTR/MTTR, proportion of incidents that crossed zone boundaries.

7) Risk appetite and acceptance thresholds

Risk Appetite Statement: allow cumulative risk in the yellow zone if there are mitigation plans; orange/red - only with temporary compensating controls and a ≤30-day exit plan.
Decision Gates: high-rollers> X outputs without EDD - forbidden; opaque partners - stop; advertising without age guarantees - stop.

8) Escalation and communication (playbook)

Triggers: R≥16; PII incident; high-value sanctions case; CBR> thresholds; RG risk clusters.
Channel: Incident bridge (Compliance + Security + Payments + Legal + PR + Ops).
Steps: 1) containment 2) confirmation of scale 3) mandatory notifications (by jurisdiction) 4) CAPA plan 5) post-mortem at 72 h.

RACI:
  • Responsible: category owner (AML/KYC/RG/Privacy/Ads/Payments)
  • Accountable: Head of Compliance
  • Consulted: Legal, DPO, Security, SRE, Finance
  • Informed: C-level, Support/VIP, Partners/PSP (if required)

9) Risk Register - Record Structure

ID· Category· Scenario· Causes/vulnerabilities· L· I· R· Zone· KRI/KPI· Escalation threshold/condition· Current/planned controls· Owner (business/tech) · Status/CAPA· Dates· Revision Date

Example:
ID: AML-012Category: SanctionsScenario: PEP Match at VIP Before Cashout
L/I: 3 × 4 = 12 (orange)Threshold: hit-rate> 3% of the day → escalation
Controls: second provider, manual verification, hold T + 1
CAPA: configure fuzzy-matching, train manual validation teamTerm: 14 days

10) Domain examples (mini playbook 'and)

A. AML/Sanctions

Condition: abnormal growth of STR and sanctioned hits.
Actions: include secondary provider; clarify lists; reduce sensitivity for low risk/enhance for high-risk; conduct EDD by cluster.

B. KYC/KYB

Condition: liveness-fail> 15%.
Actions: switching to fallback; manual flow for VIP; SDK verification/camera; temporary limits.

C. Payments/Bonus Bonus

Condition: CBR> 1. 2% or a surge in multi-account.
Actions: strengthen velocity/device signatures; 3DS mandatory; bonus limits; post-campaine audit affiliates.

D. RG

Condition: triggers of harmful activity in a cluster of players.
Actions: contact/advice, limit deposits, temporary blocking, documenting actions.

E. Data/PII

Condition: unconfirmed leak.
Actions: containment (keys/accesses), forensics, DPIA, notifications (if required), mandatory post-mortem.

F. Advertising

Condition: Complaint about promo to minors.
Actions: instant off, source/target audit, updating policies, informing the regulator if necessary.

11) Vendors and third circuit

Before onboarding: due diligence, sanctions/PEP, SOC2/ISO27001, DPIA/DTIA, DPA/SCCs.
In operation: SLA monitoring, incidents, sub-processors, geo-localization of data.
Offboarding: revocation of accesses, deletion/return of data, closing act.

12) Embedding in processes

CAB/Change-control: Changes to anti-fraud/compliance rules go through CAB with an impact assessment on KRI/FPR/FNR.
CI/CD: compliance tests (policy-as-code) in pipelines; "killer" rules - only through feature flags.
Reporting: KRIs daily snapshot; weekly risk committee; monthly retro with matrix update.

13) Matrix maturity checklist

  • L/I scales are validated and documented
  • Categories and scenarios cover 95% of past year incidents
  • KRIs automated (dashboards, alerts, SLA reactions)
  • There is a second provider for sanctions/CCM and a switching plan
  • RACI clear, contact list and communication templates updated
  • CAPA tracker in a single system and closes on time
  • Quarterly review of risk appetite and thresholds

14) Implementation Roadmap (example)

Weeks 1-2: risk inventory, approval of scales, draft matrix, appointment of owners.
Weeks 3-4: KRIs automation, alert integration, RACI/escalation, report templates.
Month 2: connecting secondary providers, SOAR playbooks, training teams.
Month 3 +: stress tests, performance audits, threshold and policy adjustments.

TL; DR

Single 5 × 5-matrix + measurable KRIs and clear thresholds → predictable escalations and fast decisions. The result is fewer fines and incidents, higher sustainability and compliance in all jurisdictions.

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